Yifu Lin don’t worry, China is still the engine of world growth-bloxorz

Yifu Lin: don’t worry about China remains the world’s growth engine Yifu Lin don’t worry, China remains the world economic slowdown that Chinese economic growth engine continues to slow down in 2010 after the downtown pressure on the economy is still huge, the slowdown is usually attributed to structural problems such as internal China, aging high debt leverage, state-owned enterprises, inefficient and unsustainable the investment led growth model. It’s not easy to solve such problems. As in transition economies, many structural problems do exist China, the Communist Party of China in 2013 the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee made the decision to comprehensively deepen reforms is to solve these problems, however, in 2010 after the economic slowdown is largely due to external factors and periodic. There is still a huge development opportunity Chinese government’s goal is to make the 2020 gross domestic product (GDP) of urban and rural residents per capita income more than doubled in 2010, due in the next few years may appear weak external demand, domestic demand situation in Chinese can achieve this growth target is determined, including investment and consumption, the two there are good opportunities. First, as middle-income countries, China has ample opportunity to upgrade its industrial capacity. Despite heavy overcapacity in steel, cement, glass, aluminum, shipbuilding and other industries – although traditional labor-intensive processing industries have lost relative advantages due to rising wages – they all belong to medium and low industries. China has many opportunities for investment in the transformation of medium and high industries, such as special steel, precision machine tools, advanced equipment and other fields. Such investments will bring high economic returns. Second, China’s past infrastructure investment is mainly to connect a city with another city through highways, high-speed rail, airports and ports. However, infrastructure in cities such as subways and sewage treatment systems is seriously inadequate. Investing in these areas can reduce transaction costs. Increase economic efficiency and produce higher social returns and economic returns. Third, China urgently needs to invest in environmental protection. In the process of rapid economic growth, China has encountered serious environmental pollution problems. Investing in this area will bring high social rewards. Finally, urbanization. At present, about 55% of China’s population lives in urban areas. The level of urbanization in high-income countries is usually over 80%. In the future, with the development of economy and the improvement of urbanization level, it is necessary to invest in housing, urban infrastructure and other public services. At the moment of economic slowdown, China has many good investment opportunities, which are the main differences between China as a developing country and a developed country. If the developed countries have excess capacity, it will be very difficult to find good new investment opportunities. The infrastructure and environment of the developed countries are good as a whole, and urbanization has been completed. Therefore, in the economic downturn, we cannot simply judge the growth potential of China with the experience of developed countries. There is still plenty of financial resources, and there is plenty of China in addition to good investment opportunities

林毅夫:别担心 中国仍是世界增长引擎   林毅夫   别担心,中国仍是世界增长引擎   经济放缓不足为怪   中国经济在2010年后持续减速,目前经济下行压力仍然巨大,这种减速通常被归因为中国内部结构性的问题,比如效率低下的国有企业、高债务杠杆、老龄化以及不可持续的投资拉动型增长模式。这样的问题解决起来并不容易。   作为处于转型期的经济体,中国的确存在许多结构性问题,2013年中共十八届三中全会作出的全面深化改革的决定就是为了解决这些问题,不过,经济在2010年后出现的减速其实在很大程度上是由于外部及周期性的因素。   发展机遇依然巨大   中国政府的目标是,到2020年让国内生产总值(GDP)和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番,由于未来几年的外部需求可能会出现疲软,中国能否实现这一增长目标取决于国内需求形势,其中包括投资和消费,这两方面都存在良好的机遇。   首先,作为中等收入国家,中国有充足的机会实现工业产能升级。尽管钢铁、水泥、玻璃、铝、造船和其他工业领域出现严重产能过剩——虽然传统的劳动密集型加工工业因工资的不断上涨已失去了相对的优势——但他们都属于中低产业。中国在向中高产业转变的过程中有许多投资机遇,比如在特种钢材、精密机床、先进设备等领域。这样的投资会带来高经济回报。   其次,中国过去的基础设施投资主要是为了通过高速公路、高铁、机场和港口将一座城市与另一座城市连通。然而,像地铁和污水处理系统这样的城市内的基础设施却严重不足。投资这些领域可以降低交易成本。增加经济效率并产生较高的社会回报和经济回报。   第三,中国亟需投资环保领域。在经济快速增长过程中,中国遭遇了严重的环境污染问题。投资这一领域会带来高社会回报。   最后,城镇化。目前,中国约有55%的人口生活在城镇地区。高收入国家的城镇化水平通常超过80%。未来随着经济的发展和城镇化水平的提高,需要在住房、城市基础设施和其他公共服务领域进行投资。   在目前经济放缓之际,中国还有许多好的投资机会,这一点是中国作为发展中国家与发达国家之间的主要区别。如果发达国家的工业存在过剩产能,要找到好的新投资机会将非常困难。发达国家的基础设施建和环境整体上是好的,城镇化已经完成。因此,在经济不景气的时候,不能简单地拿发达国家的经验来判断中国的增长潜力。   财政资金仍很充裕   除了好的投资机会,中国还有充裕的资金支持投资。   首先,中国中央和地方政府的公共债务总计不到GDP的60%。在其他大多数发展中国家和发达国家,它们的政府债务已经超过了GDP的100%。   中国由充足的财政空间支持一些中意的基础设施投资。唯一的制约是地方政府从银行或者影子银行借短期债务来为过去的长期基础设施投资埋单,导致了期限上的不匹配问题。中国财政部最近通过允许地方政府发行长期基础设施债券置换他们的债务来解决这一问题。在必要情况下,中国政府可以采用另外一轮扩张性财政政策支持基础设施投资。   其次,中国的家庭储蓄占GDP的近50%,属世界最高水平。政府可以利用积极地财政政策撬动私人投资,包括利用公私合作的方式建造基础设施。   再次,投资需要用外汇从国外进口技术、设备和原材料。中国拥有3.3万亿美元的外汇储备,是世界上最多的。   上面的条件解释了为什么中国不同于其他发展中国家。其他发展中国家也有许多好的投资机会,但当它们遭遇外部冲击或经济下行风险时,它们的投资经常受到财政实力不强、私人储蓄率低以及外汇储备不足的制约,中国没有这样的限制。   增长目标定可实现   在拥有上述有利条件的情况下,中国将能够维持相对较高的投资增长率,而这会带来就业机会,增加家庭收入,并将消费增长维持在相当高的水平。这些有利条件在“十三五”期间不会发生变化。即使外部条件没有改善,出口增长相对较弱,中国仍有能力依靠国内投资和消费增长实现增长目标。   因为有能力达到增长目标,中国将继续充当世界经济增长的主要发动机,贡献全球每年增长的大约30%。(作者系北京大学国家发展研究院名誉院长) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: