Liquidity improvement, local debt value revaluation, supply peak will hit-agogoktv

Improve the liquidity of the local debt value expected revaluation supply peak will hit – reporter Zhang Qinfeng Spring Festival holiday after the first week of 2016, the local debt supply already can not wait to open the curtain. Since 15, this year the first batch of directional issuance of local debt and the first batch of public issuance of local debt has appeared, in 2016 the local debt supply curtain officially opened. The market is generally expected that this year the total amount of local debt issuance will exceed 5 trillion yuan, while the supply scale continues to improve, the issuer may be inclined to issue ahead of time, making the Spring Festival or will soon usher in the first peak of local debt supply". Market participants said that under the reasonable arrangement and regulation of relevant departments, the impact of local debt issuance is expected to be controllable, but with the increase of stock size and further enrichment of investment subjects, the liquidity of local debt will gradually improve, and the investment value will be re examined. 18 years earlier than in previous years, Hubei Province issued the tender in 2016, the province is also the first batch of public local government bonds, these bonds are replaced by general bonds, the total size of the issue of 60 billion yuan. Prior to this, on the 15 day of this month, Hebei Province issued a total of replacement of general bonds and a number of replacement special bonds, respectively, in the direction of underwriting, the first to start the 2016 local debt issuance of the "first gun", the two batch of replacement bonds issued a total size of 35 billion 13 million yuan. From the disclosure of public information, the first week after the holiday, the size of the issuance of local bonds will reach at least 95 billion 13 million yuan. Whether the issue point of time, or the size of the issue, the first batch of local bonds this year are somewhat unusual, perhaps suggesting that the supply pressure of local bonds this year will be unprecedented. From the point of view, this year the local debt issuance process ahead of previous years quite a lot. Since 2009, the local government bond issuance resume issued annually, mostly from the beginning of the 6, July, after the first time was in 2009, when at the end of March the first issue of local government debt, and in 2015 the local government debt stock exchange officially kicked off, from Jiangsu Province in mid May issued the first batch of local debt. By contrast, the issuance of local bonds this year clearly comes even earlier. At the same time, the Spring Festival, is expected to remain cautious capital, overseas market has just experienced dramatic fluctuations, but this week the local debt issue size is not low, but also highlights the urgent mentality of local government financing to a certain extent. Supply urgency, or over 5 trillion institutions are generally expected, this year’s local debt issuance or will be more than 5 trillion yuan, the supply pressure continues to increase. This year, the central government is no longer willing to issue a replacement debt limit, and local governments can set their own scale in the limit issued by the Ministry of finance. However, the Ministry of finance has said before, up to the end of 2014 local government debt balance of 15 trillion and 400 billion yuan of non borrowing by issuing bonds part (about 14 trillion and 340 billion yuan), replacement through the issuance of local government in three years plan. In 2015, the Ministry of Finance issued a total of 3 trillion and 200 billion yuan replacement bond amount, so the next two years, the local government will replace the remaining about 11 trillion and 140 billion yuan of existing debt, an average of more than 5 trillion yuan per year. On the other hand, the theory of substitution bonds is discussed

流动性改善地方债价值料重估 供给洪峰将来袭   □本报记者 张勤峰   春节长假后首周,2016年地方债供给的大幕就已迫不及待地拉开。15日以来,今年首批定向发行地方债和首批公开发行地方债已先后露面,2016年地方债供给大幕正式拉开。市场普遍预计,今年地方债发行总量将超过5万亿元,在供给规模继续提高的同时,发行人可能倾向提前发行,使得春节后或将很快迎来地方债供给的首个“洪峰”。市场人士表示,在相关部门合理安排和调控之下,预计地方债发行的冲击可控,而随着存量规模上升及投资主体进一步丰富,地方债流动性渐趋改善,投资价值或会得到重新审视。   来得比往年都早些   18日,湖北省招标发行了2016年该省也是全国第一批公募地方政府债券,这批债券均为置换一般债券,发行总规模600亿元。在此之前,本月15日,河北省以定向承销方式分别发行了一批置换一般债券和一批置换专项债券,率先打响了2016年地方债发行的“第一枪”,该两批置换债券发行总规模为350.13亿元。从已披露公开信息上看,长假后第一周,地方债发行规模至少将达到950.13亿元。   无论是发行时点,还是发行规模,今年首批地方债均有些不同寻常之处,或许暗示今年地方债的供给压力将是空前的。从时点上看,今年地方债发行进程比往年提前不少。自2009年地方政府债券恢复发行以来,每年的发行大多从6、7月份开始,此前最早的一次是2009年,当年3月底就发行了首支地方债,而2015年地方政府存量债务置换正式揭开序幕,由江苏省在5月中旬发行了当年第一批地方债。相比之下,今年地方债发行显然来得还要更早些。与此同时,春节刚过,资金面谨慎预期犹存,海外市场刚经历剧烈波动,但本周地方债发行规模并不低,也在一定程度上凸显地方政府融资的急切心态。   供给急迫 全年或超5万亿   机构普遍预计,今年地方债发行或将超过5万亿元,供给压力料继续增加。   今年中央政府不再硬性下达置换债务额度,地方政府可在财政部下达的限额内自行设定发行规模。不过,财政部之前已透露,对截至2014年底的地方政府债务余额15.4万亿元中的非通过发行债券举借的部分(约14.34万亿元),计划通过发行地方政府用三年左右时间进行置换。2015年,财政部共下达3.2万亿元置换债券额度,因此今明两年地方政府将置换剩余约11.14万亿元存量债务,平均每年超过5万亿元。另外,置换债券采取限额管理后,给予地方政府更大的操作空间,可以提前置换未到期存量债务,因此理论上,今年置换债券发行规模可超过存量债务到期规模。   综合机构报告来看,普遍认为今年置换债供给量将高于去年,最低的预测数据也达到4.5万亿元,算上新增地方债额度可能继续上升,因此机构预测全年地方债发行规模基本不低于5万亿元。   在发行总量大概率继续提高的情况下,地方政府可能倾向尽早发行。业内人士指出,债券市场经历两年多牛市后,利率水平大幅走低,目前发行债券的融资成本较低,且从往年看,春节后一段时间流动性往往是一年中最充裕的时候,发行债券的阻力较小。同时,本着早投资早受益的观念,年初机构配置意向比较强烈,有利于保证债券需求,易于债券融资计划的实施。   另外,业内人士认为,由于报送发行安排及春节假期等因素影响,一季度发行时间窗口有限,因此积压的供给压力可能集中在一季度中后期及二季度释放,这也增加了未来一段时间地方债集中供给的概率。按财政部相关通知,第一、二季度累计至多可发行全年上限60%的置换债券。   流动性改善 或是估值洼地   尽管去年以来地方债高频发行已成常态,但今年地方债发行进程明显提前,如果迅速迎来供给高峰,仍可能对市场利率稳定造成一定影响。有机构人士直言,地方债发行洪峰来袭,可能加剧春节后流动性压力,而作为地方债“接盘”主体的商业银行,今年依然“压力山大”。   对于此,相关部门有意通过鼓励定向承销发行、扩大参与主体、引导合理安排发行节奏等方式来减轻地方债发行对市场的影响。财政部先前发布通知提及,积极采用定向承销方式发行置换债券。中信证券认为,今年地方债定向发行方式占比有望提高,一方面,定向发行可在一定程度上避免对市场造成巨大冲击,另一方面,定向发行的利率水平更高,银行参与意愿也相对较强。另外,自去年以来,相关部门逐渐降低地方债参与门槛,丰富地方债投资主体。同时,还将地方债纳入央行多种货币政策操作工具、债券回购、国库现金定存等多项业务的抵质押品范围内,以改善地方债流动性,增强地方债的投资吸引力。机构还表示,为减轻地方债发行可能造成的市场利率上行压力和银行资金压力,央行仍有动力保持流动性合理充裕,保障地方债有序发行。   在相关部门合理安排和调控之下,预计地方债发行的冲击可控,而对于地方债来说,随着存量规模不断上升,加上有多项措施配合,地方债的流动性有望继续改善,在缺资产格局下,地方债的投资价值有望重估。市场人士指出,地方债相对国债有稳定利差,而流动性趋于改善,地方债可能是一个“洼地”,配置价值可以关注。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: